Cowboys Don’t Get Much Help on Sunday

As Todd Archer of the Dallas Morning News wrote today, the Cowboys could have used wins on Sunday by the Giants, Packers, Saints, and Chargers. Dallas got no such luck, as three of those four teams lost. Moreover, even though the Giants’ win over Washington helped Dallas in the wildcard, it meant that the NFC East is all but out of reach.

Here are the new NFC rankings (not counting tonight’s game between Chicago and Minnesota):

NFC East leader: N.Y. Giants (11-1). The Giants are pretty much a shoe-in for the NFC East and are probably for the top seed in the NFC for the playoffs.

NFC South leader: Tampa Bay (9-3). The Buccaneers beat the Panthers in week 6 and face Carolina next week. The Cowboys, of course, hold the tiebreaker over the Buccaneers thanks to a week 8 win over Tampa Bay.

NFC West leader: Arizona (7-5): The Cardinals’ loss to the Eagles seriously hurt Arizona’s chance to get the second bye in the NFC.

NFC North leader: Chicago (6-5): The Bears play the Vikings on Sunday evening for the division lead. The second place team in this division has almost no chance of making the playoffs.

Teams in the wildcard hunt:

Current #5 Seed: Carolina (9-3): The Panthers came from behind to beat the Packers to stay even with Tampa Bay. Carolina has a 6-3 conference record, so if the Panthers lose to the Buccaneers next week and the Cowboys beat the Steelers, both teams would be 9-4 with 6-4 conference records.

Current #6 Seed: Atlanta (8-4): The Falcons traveled to San Diego and knocked off the Chargers, improving Atlanta’s record to 8-4. Atlanta has a 5-3 conference record compared with the Cowboys’ 6-4 record, giving Atlanta the slight edge there. The Cowboys have a 2-1 record against common opponents, though, so Dallas still has a chance to beat Atlanta in a tiebreaker.

Others:

Dallas (8-4): Forget looking for help from other teams– the Cowboys have to win to make the playoffs. The Cowboys’ hold a head-to-head advantage over the Buccaneers but will have a tough time beating other teams in tiebreakers.

Washington (7-5): The Redskins have started sliding at a bad time for them. Their conference record is now 6-4, with a division record of 2-3. The Redskins have to travel to Baltimore in a tough game next week, but they finish the season with games against the Bengals, Eagles, and 49ers.

Philadelphia (6-5-1): The Eagles are all but out of the race, but with games against Washington and Dallas, Philly could play the role of spoiler. It would be nice for Dallas if the Eagles could beat up a little bit on the Giants next week, but that is doubtful.

* * *

Here are the tiebreaker procedures for determining the wildcard teams:

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM

If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.

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November vs. December for the Dallas Cowboys

It has been well-documented that the Cowboys of late have had difficulty during the months of December and January. In fact, during the 2000s, the Cowboys have had their worst December/January record of any decade in team history.

An even more disturbing fact: Dallas has not had better than a .500 record during the months of December and January since going 5-0 in December and January to end the 1993 season.

Here is a look at the overall records for each decade.

September and October

The Cowboys have never had a decade during which they posted below a .500 combined record during the months of September and October.

1960s: 34-31-3 (52.31%)

Best start: 1969 (6-0)

Worst start: 1960 (0-6)

1970s: 52-21 (71.23%)

Best start: 1977 (7-0)

Worst start: 1974 (3-4)

1980s: 44-31 (58.67%)

Best start: 1983 (8-1)

Worst start: 1989 (0-8)

1990s: 51-26 (66.23%)

Best start: 1994, 1995 (7-1)

Worst start: 1990 (3-5)

2000s: 36-30 (54.55%)

Best start: 2007 (6-1)

Worst start: 2001 (2-4)

Overall record (1960-2008): 217-139-3 (60.96%)

November

Only during the 1960s have the Cowboys recorded a combined record of less than .500 during the month of November. Dallas has gone 8-1 during the past two seasons and 11-2 during the past three.

1960s: 19-22-2 (46.34%)

Best: 1968 (4-1)

Worst: 1960 (0-4)

1970s: 29-14 (67.44%)

Best:1971 (4-0)

Worst:1979 (1-3)

1980s: 22-22 (50%)

Best: 1980, 1981 (4-1)

Worst: 1988 (0-4)

1990s: 28-17 (62.22%)

Best: 1992, 1998 (4-1)

Worst: Several (2-2)

2000s: 20-17 (54.05%)

Best: 2007 (5-0)

Worst: 2001 (0-4)

Overall November record (1960-2008): 118-92-2 (56.19%)

December and January

With a 14-23 record, the Cowboys of the 2000s have had the worse record at season’s end (December and January) than in any other decade in team history.

As impressive as the 1970s Cowboys were overall, they were especially impressive at season’s end. They lost only four games all decade during the month of December.

Note: When the league had 14-game schedules and did not have bye weeks, the teams usually only played two or three games during December. Teams now play as many as five games during the months of December and January to end the regular season.

1960s: 14-12-1 (53.85%)

Best: 1965, 1969 (3-0)

Worst: 1961 (0-3)

1970s: 24-4 (85.71%)

Best: Several (3-0)

Worst:1974, 1976 (1-1)

1980s: 13-21 (38.24%)

Best: 1980, 1981 (4-1)

Worst: 1988 (0-4)

1990s: 23-16 (58.97%)

Best: 1993 (5-0)

Worst: 1997 (0-3)

2000s: 14-23 (37.84%)

Best: Several have gone .500, but none had a better record.

Worst: 2002 (0-4)

Overall December/January record (1960-2007): 88-76 (53.66%)

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The Cowboys Have the Best Winning Percentage in NFL History (At Least for Now)

About a month ago, I wrote a post noting that the Cowboys at one time during the 2008 season had the best all-time winning percentage of any team in NFL history. That was just after the Cowboys had lost to the Rams and were about to face Tampa Bay.

A month later, and the Cowboys have a three-game winning streak. Thanks to this streak, the Cowboys currently hold the best all-time winning percentage of any NFL team. I have to note this right now, because if Miami wins on Sunday against the Rams, the Cowboys will fall back into second place. Here is the summary:

1. Dallas Cowboys

Current all-time record: 422-306-6
Winning percentage: .57967

2. Miami Dolphins

Current all-time record: 375-272-4
Winning percentage: .57959

Winning percentage with a win on Sunday vs. Rams: .58024 (376-272-4)

3. Chicago Bears

Current all-time record: 682-496-42
Winning percentage: .57930

Winning percentage with a win on Sunday vs. Vikings: .57966 (684-496-42)

The other franchises in the top 10:

Browns: 475-371-13 (.561)
Packers: 642-509-36 (.557)
Raiders: 403-321-11 (.556)
49ers: 491-401-15 (.550)
Vikings: 391-321-9 (.549)
Giants: 616-507-33 (.548)
Jaguars: 117-102-0 (.534)

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MRI Results for Ware and Barber Both Negative

Cowboys nation spent Friday nervous as can be about the MRI results that were coming back on running back Marion Barber and linebacker DeMarcus Ware. But, in both cases there is good news. The results of both MRI’s were negative, meaning there was nothing serious about either injury. An MRI test on Ware’s hyper-extended left knee showed no ligament damage Friday. An MRI on Barber’s right fifth toe, which was dislocated, revealed no fracture. Both will be listed as day-to-day as they and the team gets ready for next Sunday’s showdown with the Steelers.

More Notes from the Cowboys-Seahawks Game

* In the first quarter, the Cowboys faced a 3rd and 1 from the Dallas 38. Tony Romo threw deep to the left to nobody, but Seattle cornerback Josh Wilson was called for illegial use of hands. Two plays later, Romo hit Witten for 36 yards, setting up a 16-yard touchdown pass to Martellus Bennett.

* Newly-acquired Tra Battle had one tackle in his one appearance with the San Diego Chargers in 2008. He had one tackle on his first play with the Cowboys, tackling Wilson on the ensuing kickoff following the first Dallas touchdown.

* Julius Jones had a total of eight fumbles (six lost) in four years with the Cowboys. That’s eight fumbles in 885 carries, meaning he averaged a fumble on 0.9% of his carries. Including his two fumbles against the Cowboys, he now has four fumbles on 152 attempts with Seattle, meaning he has fumbled on 2.6% of his carries.

* Roy Williams has run the ball six times in his career, including a reverse in the first quarter against Seattle. His previous five attempts went for a total of four yards, while his reverse went for 13.

* During the first five games of the season, the Cowboys outscored their opponents in the first quarter by a combined total of 41-9 en route to a 4-1 record. In the first quarters of the six games after that, Dallas was outscored 61-7. The Cowboys doubled their first-quarter output of the past six games in the first quarter of the Seattle game by scoring 14.

* The Seahawks’ long-snapper was former Cowboy Jeff Robinson.

* L.P. LaDouceur, the Cowboys’ current deep-snapper, was called for a “reverse take-down” in the third quarter. Nobody is quite sure what that means.

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Romo, Cowboys Fly Past Seahawks At Home, 34-9.

Dallas finally got the convincing win they’ve been needing since back in September today, November 27th on Thanksgiving Day in Texas Stadium over the hapless Seahawks, 34-9. From the opening drive to the end of the game, Dallas dominated in every aspect of this one.

Romo had a terrific day thanks to his O-line usually giving him plenty of time to stand in the pocket and look for an open receiver like either Jason Witten, Roy Williams or T.O. He had another 300+ yard game with three touchdowns, one to Witten, one to T.O. and for the third straight game, rookie TE Martellus Bennett caught a TD pass.

The defense shut down any thought of Seattle running the ball and DeMarcus Ware took over the NFL lead in sacks with three on the day before going to the sideline with an injury late in the third quarter. But the damage was done as Dallas had accrued a 31-9 lead at that point heading into the fourth quarter. Whether it was Maurice Morris or former Cowboy RB Julius Jones, Seattle couldn’t get anyting going on the ground, even forcing an early fumble by Jones that Dallas recovered to set up their second touchdown drive of the first quarter to take a 14-0 lead.

Matt Hasselbeck, although getting sacked five times on the day, did manage to throw for good yardage early in the game getting his team inside the red zone on three straight drives, but the Cowboys’ defense stiffened forcing three field goals and Terrence Newman got his second interception of the season on a fourth-quarter drive by the ‘Hawks that gave Dallas the ball at their own 1-yard line. It seemed that it should have been ruled a touchback as his momentum carried him into the endzone, but the ball was marked down at the Dallas 1 instead.

Jason Witten had his best game in a month and Terrell Owens and Roy Williams made several big catches as he appears to be getting more and more involved in this offense. Witten had 9 receptions for 115-yards and a touchdown, Owens ended up with 5 catches for 98-yards and a touchdown also, and the rest of the crew, Bennett, Williams and Crayton all had two receipts each. Of course Bennett had the 16-yarder for a TD.

This was most definitely a game to give the Cowboys some much-needed confidence heading into a tough December schedule that will be the test to see if this team can make it into the playoffs and have any success once they do get into the postseason. It was one of the best games they’ve played to date as the offense, defense and special teams all played well. Yes, it was a struggling and below-average Seattle team that they faced today, but the effort, intensity and playmaking abilities were all present that has to be in place to win in any NFL game. (i.e. see St. Louis Rams game!)

Cowboys-Seahawks In Thanksgiving Day Matchup At Texas Stadium.

Tomorrow afternoon while the rest of the country is either munching away on turkey and dressing, or about to, the Cowboys will meet up with former playoff rival, the Seattle Seahawks. This game will mark the return of Julius Jones to Dallas and possibly some vengeance for the disasterous 21-20 playoff loss of two years ago. However, I remember attending a Thanksgiving day game against Seattle in the late ’80’s when the two teams had drastically different records as in this season and Seattle beat Dallas badly, something like 34-10 as Shaun Alexander ran all over the Dallas defense. Alexander was in his prime then and is not a member of this year’s team, but I think you see what I’m getting at.

Whether it’s Maurice Morris or Julius Jones running the ball, the Cowboys’ defense has to stop the run and make the rather inept passing attack of the ‘Hawks try to win it. Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck hasn’t been his usual Pro Bowl-self due to a back injury and he doesn’t have many weapons to throw to if he was. As for the Seahawks defense, which is normally one of the best in the NFL, it has struggled this year also, allowing over 250-yards passing per game, second worst in the league and also rank low statistically in every other defensive stat. But last week, they gave the Redskins all they could handle in a close game that ended on a Hasselbeck interception as they were trying to get within at least field goal range to tie the game. They also managed to run for over 130-yards and limited the ‘Skins to only 200-yards passing.

So while the records of each team are decidely disparate with the ‘Boys at 7-4 and the ‘Hawks at a dismal 2-9, this game looks a lot like the Rams game in terms of trap game. Let’s just hope they can maintain the focus of the last two weeks and put away a team that they certainly should be able to put away convincingly.

Cowboys 34, Seahawks 9: A Satisfying Win, but Now Pinkie Toe Problems

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There were quite a number of potential story lines for today’s game. One could have focused on the Cowboys getting revenge for their playoff loss to the Seahawks in 2006. Another could have been the return of Julius Jones to Texas Stadium.

As it turns out, the Seahawks gave Tony Romo so much time to throw the ball that he had close to 200 yard by halftime. Jason Witten ran free over the middle and finished the day with 115 yards in nine receptions.

The only real concerns in the game arose when Marion Barber and DeMarcus Ware left the game with injuries. Neither injury, however, appears serious, though Wade Phillips reportedly appeared more stoic when asked about Ware.

[Update, from the DMN: Ware says he will play against the Steelers, while Barber apparently suffered a dislocated pinkie toe.]

Dallas took the opening kickoff and drove 71 yards in five plays. A Romo-to-Martellus Bennett touchdown gave the Cowboys a 7-0 lead.

Jones helped his former team by fumbling at the Dallas 35 on Seattle’s first possession of the game. Anthony Henry recovered the ball, and the Dallas offense resumed from there. Nine plays later, Marion Barber scored on a draw from the two, giving Dallas a 14-0 lead.

By halftime, it was 24-6. Seattle drove to the Dallas 7 on the opening drive of the second half, but the Cowboys stuffed the drive from there. The Seahawks were forced to kick a field goal, making it 24-9.

The Dallas offense had a little bit of trouble moving the ball late in the first half and early in the second, and Tony Romo was intercepted on the Cowboys’ first drive of the second half. However, the offense got back on track later in the third quarter, thanks to an amazing one-handed catch by Terrell Owens. With about two and a half minutes left in the quarter and with the Cowboys facing a 3rd-and-6, Owens ran a route down the right sideline. Romo rolled right and overthrew Owens just a bit, but T.O. pulled the ball in with one hand.

Here is the play:

One play later, Romo hit Owens on a 19-yard touchdown, increasing the lead to 31-9. It was pretty much over from there.

* * *

Some bullet points:

This was the second time this season and the eighth time in his career that Witten has surpassed 100 yards in a game. The last time was in the Cowboys’ 41-37 win over Philadelphia in week 2.
The Cowboys recorded seven sacks, the most since the Cowboys had nine against the Cardinals on November 9, 1997.
Players with sacks: Ware (3), Bradie James (2), Greg Ellis, and Tank Johnson. It was Johnson’s first sack of the season.
Roy Williams had two receptions for 51 yards, including a 38-yarder in the second quarter. It looked as if he may have a big game, but Romo missed him on a couple of throws in the second half.
Tashard Choice had 57 yards on 11 carries, including a 27-yarder. He had cut-back moves that looked very much like Marion Barber’s.
Tony Romo recorded his sixth 300-yard game of the season.

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A 7-4 Record as a Predictor for the Cowboys

If you asked a Cowboys fan with a pretty good sense of history to name three of the most disappointing seasons in team history, the years 1984 (no playoffs for the first time in a decade), 1986 (first losing season in 21 years) and 1996 (failed to win Super Bowl XXXI) might come to mind. Another disappointing season to throw in the mix may be 2005, when the Cowboys finished 9-7 and missed the playoffs for the second consecutive season under Bill Parcells.

What do all of these seasons have in common? Dallas began each season at 7-4 and lost game #12. Here is more:

1984: Dallas started at 7-4 but lost game #12 to a previously winless Buffalo team, 14-3. Dallas finished the season 9-7 and missed the playoffs.
1986: Dallas began the season at 6-1 but fell apart after Danny White was lost for the season with a wrist injury. The Cowboys traveled to Washington with a 7-4 record but were blown out in a 41-14 loss. Dallas finished the season at 7-9.
1996: Dallas struggled early in the season, going 1-3. However, the Cowboys managed to rebound and had a 7-4 record heading into their game against the Giants. Dallas lost a 20-6 game.
2005: Dallas looked solid at 7-3 but lost to Denver on Thanksgiving Day. With a 7-4 record, the Cowboys played the Giants. A 17-10 Dallas loss helped propel the Giants to the playoffs and hurt the Cowboys’ chances to do the same.

Conversely, the Cowboys have had pretty good success in the six seasons in which they won game #12 after starting 7-4. In fact, each of the six times they have won this game, the Cowboys have gone to the playoffs, and in three of those seasons, Dallas went to the Super Bowl.

1970: Dallas had struggled earlier in the season but routed Washington in game #12, 34-0. The Cowboys finished the season at 10-4 and went to Super Bowl V.
1973: Dallas at one point lost three of four in 1973 but had rebounded by week 12. Dallas faced Denver and came away with a 22-10 win. The Cowboys finished the season at 10-4 and made it to the NFC Championship Game.
1978: The Cowboys were looking like the most disappointing team of the 1978 season, but a win over New Orleans in game #12 was part of a six-game winning streak to end the season. Dallas finished the regular season at 12-4 and made it to Super Bowl XIII.
1985: Dallas fell to 7-4 in 1985 when the Bears destroyed the Cowboys, 44-0. Dallas rebounded in game #12, beating Philadelphia 34-17. The Cowboys finished the season at 10-6, winning the last NFC East title under Tom Landry.
1993: Dallas started the season at 0-2, then rebounded to improve to 7-2, but then lost two straight, including the infamous Thanksgiving Day loss to Miami in the Snow Bowl. The 7-4 Cowboys began a streak by beating the Eagles 23-17 and never lost again that year, as Dallas won Super Bowl XXVIII.
2006: Dallas had started the season at 4-4 but won three straight to improve to 7-4 under new QB Tony Romo. At 7-4, Dallas beat the Giants in a 23-20 thriller. The Cowboys finished the season at 9-7, making the playoffs . . . (okay, where they lost to the Seahawks, this week’s opponent . . . ).

* * *

Four of the five experts on ESPN have taken Dallas this week, which isn’t surprising.
98.1% of the users on ESPN’s Pigskin Pick’em took Dallas to win (non-spread). 70.4% picked Dallas to cover the 12.5-point spread.

* * *

The folks at MVN Outsider asked me to write a short preview of tomorrow’s game. Here it is:

The Cowboys learned last week that good things can happen when teams do not dedicate themselves to eliminating Terrell Owens from the Dallas offense. Owens is likely to receive more attention this week from the Seahawks, who come into the game ranked 31st in pass defense.

Even if Seattle can slow T.O. down, Jason Witten and Roy Williams should have big days. The Dallas defense is a little banged up but is still improving. The Seahawks are just as bad at passing (ranked 31st) as they are defending the pass, which certainly helps Dallas.

Cowboys 31, Seahawks 14

* * *

The Cowboys won 80.1% of the simulations on Accuscore this week, by an average score of 27.8 to 16.5. Here is the summary:

The Cowboys are looking to close the season strong and they have a 56 percent chance of racking up another easy double digit win over an NFC West opponent. Tony Romo has a simulation passer rating over 100 with a 48 percent chance of passing for 250+ yards and 2+ TDs. Matt Hasselbeck has just a 71 rating in simulations with just a 12 percent chance of passing for 250 and 2 TDs. Even if Hasselbeck has a big game the Cowboys are still favored by 6 points winning 72 percent of these simulations because Julius Jones and Maurice Morris only average 3.5 ypc. Marion Barber is averaging 110 rushing yards per sim to give the Cowboys a balanced offensive attack.

Here is more.

The Cowboys did even better on WhatIfSports, winning 90.2% of the simulations by an average score of 32-13.

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Preview: Cowboys Look to Ground the Hawks on Turkey Day

The Thanksgiving day tradition of the Dallas Cowboys playing hosts is as usual back on in 2008, and this year the 7-4 Cowboys play host to the underachieving 2-9 Seattle Seahawks on Thursday afternoon. The Cowboys are starting to find their stride again, as they have won two in a row since the return of Tony Romo at the QB spot, and Sunday it was Romo’s play and the big-plays of Terrell Owens that led the Cowboys to a 35-22 win over the Niners.

As for the Seahawks, they have been beaten up all season by injuires as well as poor play from players they felt were going to be able to step up and help defend their NFC West title. Instead, the team looks as if they are going to simply play out the final five games, and likely send coach Mike Holmgren off with his worst season as a head coach in his possible Hall of Fame career.

Romo is 9-3 as a starter at Texas Stadium, and he and the team seem to just play a lot more confident at home than they do away from their stadium. The last two Thanksgiving Day games Romo has played in he’s won, and this time he’s playing a defense that he should be able to throw against all day long. Owens also should have another big day, as no one on the Hawks can match up with him.

Seattle does have starting QB Matt Hasselbeck back, but he’s been below average at best in his first two games since his return. He threw three picks vs the Cardinals two weeks ago, and against the Skins on Sunday, he was just 12-for-24 for 103 yards, two TD’s and two picks. His play is on tap with the rest of the team that has letdown the fan base in Seattle.

The Hawks are 31st in the league in total offense, and in two games with Hasselbeck have gained just 424 yards. There is no reason to think here that much is going to turn around for them, that is unless they can open things up. The Hawks O-line is also banged up, as they could be missing up to three starters.

Look for Dallas to have a rather easy afternoon doing as they please on both sides of the ball against Seattle. It’ll be a long day for the Hawks, while the Cowboys move ever closer to a wild card spot in the NFC.

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TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM

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September and October

November

December and January

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